Art of War and Current Events

Sun Tzu said:

"...the skilled in planning and directing the effective use of military operations and forces subdue the enemy's forces without battle; capture the enemy's walled cities, fortresses and forts without attacking or besieging them; and destroy the enemy's nation without protracted campaigns. "

Sun Tzu also said:

" Those of former times skilled in warfare achieved a condition of first being un-defeatable before engaging in battle by keeping watch or spying out the condition or circumstances under which the enemy can be defeated. Thus, being un-defeatable lies with oneself while the conditions or circumstances under which the enemy can be defeated lies with the enemy"

As a matter of fact, Sun Tzu said many things--many of which would explain several current day successes and failures.

Let's review the recent events in Egypt against some of these data and principles.

Intelligence, and the use of agents were central to Sun Tzu's strategies and methods. Today, this would constitute having a good and reliable "intelligence estimate" or assessment of the situation leading to predictions of a high probability. Another attribute of intelligence is that it is covert or secret--the elements of surprise and "mis-direction" contribute majorly to probable victory.

SunTzu laid out and codified many principles which would be too numerous to mention in this blog--although it would make a great subject for a written piece to analyze current events: the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: the Turmoil in the Middle East, etc.--against his strategies.

Simple fact about Egypt: this was a campaign, well thought out and planned, utilizing the workable principles of war. Yes, social media acted as a light speed facilatator, and yes, students organized the various tactical maneuvers the public sees on television. But make no mistake--these events were well thought out in advance, coordinated, timed, planned using intelligence far superior to the "opponent's" intelligence. Any other assertion is simply folly.

Who had the accurate intelligence assesment in Egypt? Who has the accurate intelligence assessment in the other countries currently undergoing social unrest in the Middle East? Who's winning the coordinated campaign? Who 's using the correct principles of warfare? Who stands to gain from these events?

I guess eventually, we will know.